500,000. That was the U.S. government’s estimate of the combined casualty count of the Ukraine war 18 months in. Now, it has been over three years since Russia launched a mainland invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 22, 2022.
This conflict, however, did not begin with the Russian invasion in 2022 but has been ongoing since 2014. Following a revolution that resisted the strongly Russian-connected Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, responsive pro-Russian protests in Donetsk and Luhansk turned into armed revolts.
These paramilitary forces took several towns with the support of unmarked Russian troops, leading to a prolonged conflict that saw the use of trench warfare and 14,000 casualties. The same unmarked Russian special forces quickly occupied the Crimean peninsula later in the same year and put a pro-Russian government in power. Occupied regions of Ukraine would later play a key role in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
With this conflict being the deadliest in Europe since WW2, there is no doubt that peace is craved by most of the Western world. However, finding this harmony is not so easy. The Kremlin has repeatedly responded to Trump’s negotiations but has made it clear that a ceasefire is unlikely to be agreed upon without a serious pro-Russian outcome. Ukraine, on the other hand, has supported the idea of a ceasefire, with the nation eventually agreeing to an unconditional surrender. Despite this, the Russian government has still refused to agree on such a deal.
President Trump made a potential peace in Ukraine an important part of his 2024 campaign, with him claiming that he would use his close relationship with Vladimir Putin to put a quick end to the war. However, even Trump has shown anger for the lack of negotiation on the Russian side, with him stating in an interview with NBC that he was “pissed off” with Putin.
Doubtless, continued peace in Eastern Europe is unlikely with Putin as president. Putin’s Russia has repeatedly increased influence over regions of the Eurasian steppe such as Georgia, Chechnya and now Ukraine. This is despite agreements by the Soviet Union to respect these nations’ territories.
This anger of the President towards Russia is not one-sided. In a recent–and very publicized–meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump and the Ukrainian leader had a viral shouting match over the war. Trump expressed a feeling that Zelensky has avoided peace, while Zelensky claimed that Trump has been affected by Russian propaganda.
U.S.-Ukraine relations have further worsened due to continued negotiations with the Trump administration. Trump has repeatedly met with Putin without Ukrainian representation, breaking a tradition set up by the Biden administration. Additionally, Trump seeks reimbursement for the vast amounts of aid America has sent to Ukraine. This culminated in talks that attempted to get 50% of Ukrainian critical minerals signed over to the U.S. as compensation.
It seems that Trump is rushing to create peace in Ukraine as quickly as possible, likely to gain support for being the one to end such a deadly conflict. This same method has worked for previous presidents, such as how Theodore Roosevelt was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating an end to the Russo-Japanese War. However, cases such as these are not easy. This is not just an armed conflict but also a war of ideologies: the Western-backed democracy versus the Eastern oligarchy giant.
Along with these issues, Ukraine has repeatedly expressed a desire to join NATO and the EU. In Russia’s eyes, this would be a Western push into its sphere of influence. This is a dangerous situation; on one hand, Ukraine needs a support system of allies; on the other, Ukrainian admission to NATO or the EU could be seen as an act of war by Russia, or at least expanded aggression.
With both sides accusing each other of violating even specific energy agreements during the war, what would a long-term ceasefire even look like?
In the recent ceasefire negotiations in Jeddah, clear wording expressed Trump’s desire for an immediate end to fighting. The ceasefire would last 30 days and could be extended. It would also include a renewing of American support to Ukraine. EU troops would be stationed in Ukraine to ensure that both sides would follow the deal.
However, with the recent recapture of the Kursk region, Russia would gain more by delaying such negotiations in order to take as much territory as it can before any ceasefire would be agreed upon. Along with this, there is little reason for Putin to accept such an agreement. Russia has already been willing to lose countless troops, and with them winning the war recently, there is little threat towards Putin’s regime.
Overall, while Trump is adamant on negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine, an agreement seems unlikely. Putin has had a history of pushing on deadly wars in order to expand Russian influence, as previously seen in Georgia and Chechnya. Furthermore, a ceasefire would look like defeat to the much larger nation, something that could hurt Putin’s authoritarian control. If Trump really wants Russia to agree to a deal, he would have to give them large concessions, which may lead to even greater Russian expansion.
